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Consumers have largely seen prices deflate for physical goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances, economists said. They've also declined for some groceries and other things, such as travel, according to the consumer price index. Physical goods prices have deflated in all but one month since May 2023, for example. watch nowThe U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Downward pressure on goods prices has waned a bit in recent months as supply-and-demand dynamics have normalized, economists said.
Persons: Oscar Wong, They've, they've, Michael Pugliese, Stephen Brown, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Hayley Berg, Hopper, There's, Brown Organizations: Consumers, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, North, Capital Economics, Finance, GameStop, AMC, U.S, Federal Reserve, Canadian, Moody's, Airlines Locations: Wells Fargo, North America, U.S
It’s a very different matter in Europe — by far the biggest export market for Chinese EV manufacturers. EU tariffs could backfireAccording to Citi, the EU accounted for 36% of Chinese EV exports last year, more than the next five largest markets combined. By contrast, the United States currently receives just 1.1% of China’s EV exports. For BYD, China’s biggest EV maker, the tariffs would likely have to be even higher to be effective, they add. “I’d say we are entering a very tense period in terms of trade interactions and trade defense,” she added.
Persons: Joe Biden, “ I’m, ” Biden, Joseph Webster, Agatha Kratz, Kratz, That’s, Oliver Zipse, , Tu Le, , Josh Lipsky, Juliana Liu Organizations: London CNN, United, EV, European Union, Atlantic Council, EU, CNN, Citi, Capital Economics, BMW Locations: China, America, Europe, United States, It’s, Brussels, “ Brussels, Beijing, subsidization, EU, States, Italy, Hong Kong
That increase is largely due to dynamics in the market for crude oil, which is refined into gasoline, economists said. Annual housing inflation declined to 5.5% in April from 5.7% in March. Shelter and gasoline inflation combined contributed more than 70% of the monthly CPI increase for all items, according to the BLS. Americans' buying patterns also simultaneously shifted away from services — such as entertainment and travel — toward physical goods since they stayed at home more, driving up demand and fueling decades-high goods inflation. Wage growth has been one contributor to services inflation, for example, economists said.
Persons: Grace Cary, That's, Mark Zandi, we're, Zandi, Michael Pugliese, Trump, Stephen Brown, Pugliese Organizations: U.S . Labor Department, Moody's Analytics, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Finance, GameStop, AMC, Biden, North, Capital Economics, Supply Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
Consumer sentiment slumped as inflation expectations rose, despite otherwise strong signals in the economy, according to a closely watched survey released Friday. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers sentiment index for May posted an initial reading of 67.4 for the month, down from 77.2 in April and well off the Dow Jones consensus call for 76. Along with the downbeat sentiment measure, the outlook for inflation across the one- and five-year horizons increased. The inflation readings represent the biggest pitfall for policymakers as the Federal Reserve contemplates the near-term path of monetary policy. The next important data point for inflation comes Wednesday when the Labor Department releases its consumer price index report for April.
Persons: Dow Jones, Joanne Hsu, Paul Ashworth, Jeffrey Roach, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: The University of Michigan Survey, Dow, North, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, LPL, Fed, Labor Department Locations: North America, Michigan
Wall Street isn't to blame for the non-stop rise in housing prices, according to Capital Economics. The research firm said any legislation designed to block hedge funds from buying homes won't lower home prices. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe ongoing rise in home prices shouldn't be blamed on Wall Street, according to a Thursday note from Capital Economics. The worry is that a surge in big investors buying up single-family homes is driving up prices, exacerbating a shortage in housing, and preventing younger people from becoming first-time home buyers.
Persons: Organizations: Capital Economics, Investor, Service, Business Locations: Congress
Live Updates: The April Jobs Report
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Lydia Depillis | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
PinnedIt’s been a hot spring for the American labor market, and while the summer forecast is milder, it’s not clear when the cool-down will begin. The last three months have seen an upswing in job creation, bending what had been a bumpy but definite downtrend since the post-pandemic resurgence. Does that mean the labor market is taking off again without ever having touched down? Workers are quitting their jobs at even lower rates than they were in 2019. “You don’t have that cost of onboarding and starting over again if you can hold on to them.”
Persons: It’s, , Stephen Brown, Belinda Román, Organizations: Labor Department, North, Capital Economics, Institute for Supply Management, National Federation of Independent, Workers, St, Mary’s University Locations: North America, San Antonio
Turkey's inflation accelerates to nearly 70% in April
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Turkey's inflation accelerated to 69.8% annually for the month of April, the Turkish Statistical Institute reported Friday. On a monthly basis, Turkey's inflation increased 3.18%, led by price rises in alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and hotels, cafes and restaurants. April's inflation rate marks the highest annual increase since November 2022, when inflation was around 85%. But any hopes of interest rate cuts are a long way off, economists said. Turkey's central bank has hiked its key interest rate to 50%, citing the continuing need to counter climbing inflation in the country.
Persons: Kemal Ataturk, April's, Liam Peach Organizations: Turkish, Turkish Statistical Institute, Economics Locations: Turkish, Sisli, Istanbul, Turkey, London
Stocks and the economy look strong but there are four factors that could pose a problem, Capital Economics said. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and high interest rates are big risks to markets. A depreciation of the Chinese yuan and soaring US debt are also the two factors investors need to watch. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Thirdly, with the rising value of the Chinese yuan, any depreciation could trigger currency market volatility elsewhere.
Persons: , Ruben Gargallo Abargues, Jonas Goltermann, Wednesday's, Goltermann, Bill Gross Organizations: Economics, Service, Capital Economics, Brent Locations: Israel, Treasuries
CNBC's Inside India newsletter: Will AI make or break India?
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
But one that could foreshadow India's growth story. Can Teleperformance's stock plunge be the canary in the coal mine for what is likely to happen to India because of AI? But it's likely to be a blip for India's growth trajectory, given the macro forces at play. Besides creating jobs that are less likely to be immediately disrupted by AI, India could also be a net beneficiary of artificial intelligence. The Indian stock market indexes, Sensex and Nifty 50 , are heading for a positive week again — up by 1% and 1.2%, respectively.
Persons: Findlay Kember, Klarna, ChatGPT, K Krithivasan, Krithivasan, Narendra Modi, It's, Shilan Shah, Goldman Sachs, Vinay Dwivedi, Ashok Gulati, Nomura, League Pickleball, Karine Jean, Pierre, Jerome Powell, Raghuram Rajan, Ashish Jain, CNBC's Ayushi Jindal Organizations: AFP, Getty, India's Tata Consultancy Services, Financial Times, TCS, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, University of Oxford, Capital Economics, Investment, Nomura, Qualcomm, Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing, UPI, India, Commission, Agricultural, United Pickleball Association, Global Sports, PPA, League, Washington Post, White, U.S ., Federal, CNBC, Reserve Bank of India, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Swedish, Paris, India, Chennai, U.S, Europe, China, Singapore, South Korea, Canada, United States
Over the last two weeks, major cloud providers Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet have reported quarterly earnings that exceeded Wall Street's expectations. Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet's shares also climbed after earnings were reported, evidence that doubling down on their AI strategies seems to be paying off. Davidson Companies analyst Gil Luria told Business Insider regarding Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet. Microsoft Cloud generated $35.1 billion in revenue — up 23% year-over-year — that CEO Satya Nadella credits partly to investments into AI tools like Microsoft Copilot. Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet didn't immediately return a request for comment from Business Insider before publication.
Persons: , D.A, Gil Luria, Claude, Andy Jassy, Satya Nadella, Nadella, Ruth Porat, OpenAI's ChatGPT, Luria, doesn't, Jassy, Sundar Pichai Organizations: Service, Microsoft, Business, Davidson Companies, Amazon, Web Services, Google Cloud, Google, Gemini, Research, Capital Locations: Indonesia
Scott Olson | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump is building a second-term economic agenda that analysts say could reheat the very inflation that he has slammed President Joe Biden for creating. We have a ring around the country," Trump said in a TIME interview released Tuesday, referring to aggressive tariffs he has promised to impose in a second term. Yet economists and Wall Street analysts agree that these plans would likely drive consumer prices higher. "A second Trump term could bring higher tariffs, attempts to weaken the dollar, even higher deficits, deportation of illegal immigrants, and other policies that could put upward pressure on inflation," Piper Sandler analysts wrote last week. Reached for comment, the Trump campaign said, "under President Trump, inflation was non-existent, gasoline was cheap, groceries were affordable, and the American Dream was alive and well."
Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Olson, Joe Biden, Trump, Jay Powell, Piper Sandler, Donald Trump's, Paul Ashworth, Wells Organizations: Clinton Middle School, Getty, Wall Street, Trump, Federal, Wall, Capital Economics, North, U.S ., Wells Locations: Clinton , Iowa, China, Mexico, South Carolina, North America
Today's big story examines how recruitment for AI talent is ramping up in the tech industry and on Wall Street . AdvertisementEager to understand how to leverage the tech, companies are racing to scoop up AI specialists. But Big Tech companies aren't just competing with each other. With so many venture capitalists eager to fund AI ideas , some AI talent are starting their own companies. Businesses are already fighting the rule, but if it survives the courts it could mean even more movement of AI talent.
Persons: , We've, we've, Justin Sullivan, Chelsea Jia Feng, Eager, Kali Hays, Ellen Thomas, Banks, it's, Getty, Sean Gladwell, Olga Pyrkina, Tyler Le, Amy Hood, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Johannes Eisele, Swan, Mark Spitznagel, Spitznagel, David Einhorn, there's, Dimitrios Kambouris, Leon Neal, Abanti Chowdhury, Bill Gates, Gates, BI Gates, Satya Nadella, Zs, Herman Miller Eames, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Business, Service, Getty Images, Anadolu Agency, Big Tech, Johannes, Getty, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Research, Capital Economics, Greenlight, Staff, Microsoft, BI, Paramount Locations: California, AFP, America, New York, London, Chicago
The AI-fueled stock market bubble will burst in 2026, according to Capital Economics. The research firm said rising interest rates and higher inflation will weigh down equity valuations. AdvertisementAn artificial intelligence-fueled stock market bubble will burst in 2026, according to Capital Economics. The research firm has said that a stock market bubble, driven by investor excitement towards artificial intelligence, would drive the S&P 500 to as high as 6,500 by 2025, led by technology stocks. The expected bursting of the stock market bubble should lead to a decade of investment returns that favor bonds over stocks.
Persons: , Diana Iovanel, James Reilly, Iovanel, Reilly Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital, US
The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, , MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, , ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, , ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was down 0.4% at $86.8 per barrel, having earlier spiked more than 3%. The Israeli military has not commented, and Iran has not identified the source of the attack. Iran launched the attack in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Syria earlier this month. Iran is a big oil producer but exports most of its crude to China because of long-standing international sanctions. Mexico also said earlier this month that it would cut back oil exports because of strong domestic demand.
Persons: Brent, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, , ” Neil Shearing, Richard Bronze Organizations: London CNN, CNN, Capital Economics, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ, United, Nikkei, Kospi, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange Locations: Hong Kong, London, Iranian, Isfahan, East, Iran, Syria, Hormuz, China, United States, Mexico, Asia, Israel, Tel Aviv
A woman in Brazil was arrested after seemingly trying to secure a bank loan using her dead uncle's signature. The woman appeared to bring her uncle's body to the bank in a wheelchair and tried to use it to sign papers. Bank staff became suspicious when the man was unresponsive and his head kept lolling, local media said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA woman in Brazil was arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of theft by fraud and violating a corpse after she brought her uncle to a bank to sign a loan agreement, local media outlets reported.
Persons: , O Dia, Erika de Souza Vieira Nunes, Nunes, that's, Paulo Roberto Braga, Correio Braziliense, Braga, Correio, Christ, Christian Adams, William Jackson Organizations: Bank, Service, Itaú Bank, Economics Locations: Brazil, Rio, Rio de Janeiro, South America
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe market served up another reminder of its indifference to geopolitics on Monday, as traders seemingly shrugged off the potential impact of Iran's strikes on Israel. Signs that the conflict between the two countries won't escalate any further have calmed the market's nerves, XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said on Monday. "The dollar opened the week fairly muted and US bond yields are slightly higher, suggesting that there was no flight to safe havens." Anyone who's been following markets for the past two years won't be surprised at traders' muted reaction to the latest tensions in the Middle East.
Persons: , pare, Kathleen Brooks, Joe Biden, Brooks, who's, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Neal Shearing, Shearing, isn't Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Ali Khamenei —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Brent, West Texas, Business, JPMorgan, Bridgewater, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Israel, Iran, Tehran, OPEC
Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected
  + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Excluding auto-related receipts, retail sales jumped 1.1%, also well ahead of the estimate for a 0.5% increase. An increase in gas prices helped push the headline retail sales number higher, with sales up 2.1% on the month at service stations. Resilient consumer spending has helped keep the economy afloat despite higher interest rates and concerns over stubborn inflation. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic output so it is critical to continued growth in gross domestic product. Stronger consumer spending could cause the Fed to hold off longer on cuts, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
Persons: Dow, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Commerce Department, Labor Department, Sporting, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics Locations: Iran, Israel
LONDON — U.K. gross domestic product rose 0.1% in February, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, providing another sign of a return to sluggish economic growth this year. The economy contracted in the third and fourth corners of 2023, putting the U.K. in a technical recession. Construction output, which boosted growth at the start of the year, fell 1.9% in February. The reading "all-but confirms the recession ended" last year, Paul Dales, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. British inflation fell more than expected in March, to a nearly two-and-a-half year low of 3.4%.
Persons: Paul Dales Organizations: Street, LONDON, National Statistics, Capital Economics Locations: London, England, U.S
Why gold prices are at record highsFrom central banks to Costco customers, it seems everyone is buying gold these days, reports CNN’s John Towfighi. Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. The Honest Company posted a strong fourth quarter in March.
Persons: , ” Mark Carney, , GFANZ, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, JPMorgan, CNN’s John Towfighi, China —, Read, Jessica Alba, Ramishah Maruf, Alba’s, Chuck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, European Central Bank, Glasgow Financial Alliance, UN, Bank of England, ECB, MIT, Columbia Business School, Zero Banking Alliance, United Nations, decarbonization, CNN, JPMorgan Chase, State, JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, The Honest, The Honest Company, Honest, Nasdaq Locations: New York, Glasgow, China, India, Turkey
The research firm pointed to home inventory levels, which are still near historic lows. Low inventory has helped push home prices higher over the last year as demand remains hot. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementHome prices could continue to climb this year, as the housing market isn't nearly as loose as prospective homebuyers may think, according to Capital Economics. The research firm pointed to the recent uptick in housing inventory, with new listings on the market up 16% compared to levels last year.
Persons: , That's Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Business
Why gold prices are at record highs
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. Investors also regard gold as a hedge against inflation, betting bullion will retain its value when prices rise. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. Higher oil prices are likely to stoke concerns over inflation, boosting gold prices, according to the UBS research note.
Persons: China —, Ulf Lindahl, Lindahl, Morgan, JP Morgan, Janet Yellen’s, Yellen, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Wells, Richard Galanti, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, Research Associates, Moody’s, of Commerce, Costco Locations: New York, China, India, Turkey, Central, Wells Fargo
Cagla Gurdogan | ReutersTurkey's annual inflation rose to 68.5% for the month of March, an increase on February's 67.1% inflation read, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute's report released Wednesday. Turkey has launched a concerted effort to tackle soaring inflation with interest rate hikes, most recently raising the country's key rate from 45% to 50% in late March. watch nowMuch of the inflation in recent months stems from a significant increase to the minimum wage that Turkey's government mandated for 2024. Economists expect further rate hikes from the central bank will be necessary. Turkey's central bank implemented eight consecutive interest rate hikes from June 2023 to January 2024, totaling a cumulative 3,650 basis points.
Persons: Cagla Gurdogan, Nicholas Farr, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Umit Bektas Organizations: Reuters, Economics, Istanbul Mayor, Republican People's Party Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Europe, London, Istanbul Metropolitan, Istanbul
London CNN —The global price of oil rose Tuesday to its highest level in seven months, propelled, in part, by concerns that mounting tensions in the Middle East could crimp supply. Brent crude, the world’s oil benchmark, climbed as much as 1.8% to $89 a barrel, the highest since early September, before paring those gains slightly mid-afternoon in Europe. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, also rose 1.8% to reach a five-month high of $85 a barrel. “You’ve got ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries… Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea,” as well as a “general sense that the Middle East is less stable than it was a year ago,” he told CNN. Geopolitical tensionsWriting about higher oil prices Tuesday, Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at financial services company Hargreaves Lansdown, singled out escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following an airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Syria Monday.
Persons: Richard Bronze, “ You’ve, , Sophie Lund, Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown, Israel, , specter, Brent, Bill Weatherburn Organizations: London CNN, Brent, West, CNN, Revolutionary Guards, Organization of, Petroleum, Lund, Capital Economics Locations: Europe, West Texas, Brent, United States, Red, , Syria Monday, Iran, Syria, Israel, Tehran, Quds, OPEC, Iran’s, Damascus, Gaza, China
The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. From clothes to carsChina’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. “What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat. “But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, ” Jens Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Huang Jingwen, ” Eskelund, Brad W, ” Markus W, Voigt, China’s BYD, Warren Buffett, Setser, Li Qiang, , , Joe Biden, Jennifer McKeown, Shawn Deng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, European Union, European Union Chamber of Commerce, Zero, of, People, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Council, Foreign Relations, World Trade Organization, Aream Group, Tesla, Getty, China Development Forum, Xinhua, Agency, ., EV, European Commission, WTO, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Europe, Beijing, Xinhua, China's Shandong, . Washington, Brussels
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